Seems the Bristol poll out yesterday puts the provincial Tories in the lead.
See the Daily Gleaner article about the poll here.
With no indication of the number of New Brunswickers polled, it cannot be taken too seriously, as very possibly the error of margin could be quite high.
But it is one more indication that the early election talk will slow down more.
Showing posts with label conservative. Show all posts
Showing posts with label conservative. Show all posts
Saturday, June 20, 2009
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
Fall Election Postponed
Appears the fall election has been postponed. Sorry for earlier posts musing about the possibility of an early election call.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Victor Boudreau & RDC
The Telegraph Journal had an article today about our Regional Development Corporation.
For those not familiar with RDC, it is sort of like a provincial version of ACOA, with no oversight, measurement or rules. And let's be honest, ACOA is not exactly non-partisan, they just cover their 'investments' with a long and detailed paper trail. Enough paper to cover the largest tushie.
Finance Minister Victor Boudreau fell all over himself trying to justify RDC. Some of his better quotes from the article:
"The return on investment is sometimes not calculated in dollars and cents or in the numbers of jobs "
But how does the Finance Minister get rid of the Pork Barrel Mechanism of Last Resort. Where then does an MLA turn to get your money to give to a golf course or vacation cottage?
For those not familiar with RDC, it is sort of like a provincial version of ACOA, with no oversight, measurement or rules. And let's be honest, ACOA is not exactly non-partisan, they just cover their 'investments' with a long and detailed paper trail. Enough paper to cover the largest tushie.
Finance Minister Victor Boudreau fell all over himself trying to justify RDC. Some of his better quotes from the article:
"The return on investment is sometimes not calculated in dollars and cents or in the numbers of jobs "
"There's a benefit in every one of the projects we do."
"I don't know if you can calculate it every time, but there are definitively benefits beyond simply job creation and tax dollars,"
For anyone struggling to keep up, the 'return on investment' will be measured in September 2010. RDC is a provincial government vote-buying department. Makes one yearn for the time when a pint of whisky would suffice.
But how does the Finance Minister get rid of the Pork Barrel Mechanism of Last Resort. Where then does an MLA turn to get your money to give to a golf course or vacation cottage?
Monday, April 27, 2009
Graham Tax Increases - The Never Ending Story
The Graham government has raised taxes again, this one with a special twist.
The executive dream team at NB Liquor, led by Dana Clendenning (currently under a cloud of a conflict-of-interest allegations), requested that the companies that sell wine to NB Liquor increase their prices.
That is correct, as loony as that sounds, NB Liquor asked to pay more. Well not really asked, they told them to pay more. We here at NB Conservative cannot understand this fact alone, but it gets worse. Much worse.
The reason they did what can only be described as an idiotic move, is that Team Graham is now selling tax-cut-mode, as opposed to the tax-increase-mode he was selling two years ago.
As Mr. Clendenning wanted to avoid being seen to increase taxes on New Brunswick consumers, to keep his rain-maker happy, the Team felt the best way to increase taxes on New Brunswickers was to share the loot with large, mainly foreign, wine companies.
This may take a pencil and some loose leaf paper (with lines), but keep with us. If you have a calculator on your phone, now is the time to get it out.
The Scenario:
You are the patronage appointment of a crown corporation in New Brunswick. You need to generate some cash to make your patron look better. And you want to travel to really, really nice wineries in beautiful countries, at no cost to yourself. Countries like Italy, where you can rent apartments to share with friends, who did not win the patronage lottery. Or France. Probably not Sweden, they do not produce much wine, and it is cold anyway.
If you just raise the mark-up like you have the past couple of years, it looks like you raised taxes, since the serfs cannot shop elsewhere for their goods. And remember, we are now in tax-cutting-mode, so increasing 'mark-up' looks quite a bit like 'taxes'.
You realize the markup on wine is 145% (really). A $10 increase in the case price NB Liquor pays turns into a $24.50 increase in the shelf price ($10 + $14.50).
Voila! an extra $24.50 per case!
But what you needed to do to accomplish this tax increase is give $10 per case to the wineries. Or 40.8% if you have the fancy calculator phone.
What is the difference you ask than just putting up the price, since people who drink wine are rich, snobby, Volvo-driving yuppies that can pay more? The difference is that if you think the Graham government can spend your money better than you (or anyone else's money for that matter) than why let them give 40.8% of the money to large wine companies in California, France, Australia, Chile and everywhere else NB Liquor buys wine.If you are a believer in higher taxes, we would guess you are not a believer in giving a large percentage to foreign multi-national corporations.
That is correct, in order to avoid looking like they raised taxes, the government of New Brunswick will give wine companies over $475,000 (based on projected annual wine revenue of $60,000,000)
So, our dream team at NB Liquor just gave almost half a million dollars to wine companies to avoid looking like they increased taxes.
The executive dream team at NB Liquor, led by Dana Clendenning (currently under a cloud of a conflict-of-interest allegations), requested that the companies that sell wine to NB Liquor increase their prices.
That is correct, as loony as that sounds, NB Liquor asked to pay more. Well not really asked, they told them to pay more. We here at NB Conservative cannot understand this fact alone, but it gets worse. Much worse.
The reason they did what can only be described as an idiotic move, is that Team Graham is now selling tax-cut-mode, as opposed to the tax-increase-mode he was selling two years ago.
As Mr. Clendenning wanted to avoid being seen to increase taxes on New Brunswick consumers, to keep his rain-maker happy, the Team felt the best way to increase taxes on New Brunswickers was to share the loot with large, mainly foreign, wine companies.
This may take a pencil and some loose leaf paper (with lines), but keep with us. If you have a calculator on your phone, now is the time to get it out.
The Scenario:
You are the patronage appointment of a crown corporation in New Brunswick. You need to generate some cash to make your patron look better. And you want to travel to really, really nice wineries in beautiful countries, at no cost to yourself. Countries like Italy, where you can rent apartments to share with friends, who did not win the patronage lottery. Or France. Probably not Sweden, they do not produce much wine, and it is cold anyway.
If you just raise the mark-up like you have the past couple of years, it looks like you raised taxes, since the serfs cannot shop elsewhere for their goods. And remember, we are now in tax-cutting-mode, so increasing 'mark-up' looks quite a bit like 'taxes'.
You realize the markup on wine is 145% (really). A $10 increase in the case price NB Liquor pays turns into a $24.50 increase in the shelf price ($10 + $14.50).
Voila! an extra $24.50 per case!
But what you needed to do to accomplish this tax increase is give $10 per case to the wineries. Or 40.8% if you have the fancy calculator phone.
What is the difference you ask than just putting up the price, since people who drink wine are rich, snobby, Volvo-driving yuppies that can pay more? The difference is that if you think the Graham government can spend your money better than you (or anyone else's money for that matter) than why let them give 40.8% of the money to large wine companies in California, France, Australia, Chile and everywhere else NB Liquor buys wine.If you are a believer in higher taxes, we would guess you are not a believer in giving a large percentage to foreign multi-national corporations.
That is correct, in order to avoid looking like they raised taxes, the government of New Brunswick will give wine companies over $475,000 (based on projected annual wine revenue of $60,000,000)
So, our dream team at NB Liquor just gave almost half a million dollars to wine companies to avoid looking like they increased taxes.
Genius at Large
Not content to muddle and befuddle education policies for people who are actually from New Brunwsick, our Minister of Education Kelly Lamrock has now entered into immigration policy. And dare we say, the self-styled "Genius at Large" at the cabinet table is handling immigration services with all the same tact and grace as he uses on French immersion and teacher contract negotiations.
The Worst Government Ever has announced that they are putting on an extra $250 fee for foreigners who apply to have their kids attend our schools. It's not that being a foreign student is already a free ride, in fact non-residents pay the full shot for a year of NB education (often ranked as the 9th or 10th worst in the country) if they make it in. The problem, as defined by the Genius at Large, is that so many foreigners are sending in applications that it is a burden on the school system.
Never mind that we are never told just how many applications there are - it could be 10 applications per year that the bureaucrats find exhausting. What we know for sure is that even if the new fee keeps all the unnecessary applications out of the queue it will still mean that the only people being punished will be the honest citizens.
That's right. Instead of charging fees to the companies who send in applications to multiple schools "just to play the odds" as Lamrock describes it, we will instead be making the legitimate and successful applicants pay the fees while the ones playing the odds just take their business (and the students we need) to another province. As an added bonus, the honest applicants will also have to pay a new $150 "orientation fee" as well - but the Genius at Large has so far failed to explain how that is going to make the system more efficient.
If we here at the NB Conservative were more cynical we might suggest that the Minister's public explanation and the actual reason for putting on the new fees don't seem to match up. But since the person doing the explaining is a Genius, he has to be logical too, doesn't he?
The Worst Government Ever has announced that they are putting on an extra $250 fee for foreigners who apply to have their kids attend our schools. It's not that being a foreign student is already a free ride, in fact non-residents pay the full shot for a year of NB education (often ranked as the 9th or 10th worst in the country) if they make it in. The problem, as defined by the Genius at Large, is that so many foreigners are sending in applications that it is a burden on the school system.
Never mind that we are never told just how many applications there are - it could be 10 applications per year that the bureaucrats find exhausting. What we know for sure is that even if the new fee keeps all the unnecessary applications out of the queue it will still mean that the only people being punished will be the honest citizens.
That's right. Instead of charging fees to the companies who send in applications to multiple schools "just to play the odds" as Lamrock describes it, we will instead be making the legitimate and successful applicants pay the fees while the ones playing the odds just take their business (and the students we need) to another province. As an added bonus, the honest applicants will also have to pay a new $150 "orientation fee" as well - but the Genius at Large has so far failed to explain how that is going to make the system more efficient.
If we here at the NB Conservative were more cynical we might suggest that the Minister's public explanation and the actual reason for putting on the new fees don't seem to match up. But since the person doing the explaining is a Genius, he has to be logical too, doesn't he?
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Favourites List
Anybody who uses a computer to surf the internet is familiar with the concept of a "Favourites List". It's that button you push when you want to see the list of your favourite web sites. It's a useful tool that means you don't have to think to remember where to go next - it's just there in front of you on the list.
Shawn Graham and the Worst Government Ever have been working on building up their favourites list over the past couple of years, and it's become pretty obvious who's on it over the past month or so.
For instance, if you're a teacher or a nurse - you're on the list. We know this because even though they didn't have the money, the Worst Government Ever signed huge salary increases with them just weeks before freezing the wages for all the other civil servants. You know, slackers like social workers and forest rangers.
Recently they added another group to the favourites list - home care workers. Now nobody would disagree with giving raises to the people who travel the back roads of New Brunswick looking after our seniors. It just seems a little strange that the Worst Government Ever would crow about these big raises in a press release the week after they totally hosed the nursing home workers by reneging on their tentative agreement and making them take a wage freeze. Guess some people are on the list and some aren't.
We know some of the others who aren't on the list, such as anyone in rural New Brunswick, or anyone who needs help with the winter power bills. And we know some of the others who are on the favourites list, like the President of NB Liquor, ducks, and anyone who wants to start a houseboat business.
The question we're wondering at NB Conservative is this: will any voters have the Worst Government Ever on their favourites list when the next election happens in September of 2010?
Shawn Graham and the Worst Government Ever have been working on building up their favourites list over the past couple of years, and it's become pretty obvious who's on it over the past month or so.
For instance, if you're a teacher or a nurse - you're on the list. We know this because even though they didn't have the money, the Worst Government Ever signed huge salary increases with them just weeks before freezing the wages for all the other civil servants. You know, slackers like social workers and forest rangers.
Recently they added another group to the favourites list - home care workers. Now nobody would disagree with giving raises to the people who travel the back roads of New Brunswick looking after our seniors. It just seems a little strange that the Worst Government Ever would crow about these big raises in a press release the week after they totally hosed the nursing home workers by reneging on their tentative agreement and making them take a wage freeze. Guess some people are on the list and some aren't.
We know some of the others who aren't on the list, such as anyone in rural New Brunswick, or anyone who needs help with the winter power bills. And we know some of the others who are on the favourites list, like the President of NB Liquor, ducks, and anyone who wants to start a houseboat business.
The question we're wondering at NB Conservative is this: will any voters have the Worst Government Ever on their favourites list when the next election happens in September of 2010?
Monday, March 30, 2009
The New Newfoundland
Newfoundland has long been the basket case of Canadian provincial economies. The fish disappeared and they're so far from markets that transportation costs are a killer. A few years ago, hope dawned in the form of offshore oil and gas. Then this recession hit, and the price of oil went from flirting with $147 a barrel at its height to over/under $50. Ouch, imagine the kind of hit your revenues take when your major export's price drops by two thirds.
Last week, Newfoundland came out with their provincial budget and the deficits are back, they're predicting $750 million in red ink next year. That sounds pretty bad.
But wait a minute, isn't New Brunswick forecasting in the order of an $800 million deficit? What gives? How can we be doing even worse than Newfoundland? Has there been a drop of anything we export in the order of the precipitous fall in oil prices?
The answer is no, despite some laughable spin we'll get into another time. So what does this mean? There's an essential difference in our deficit and Newfoundland's: there's can be largely explained by market changes, ours cannot. Theirs is a direct result of a fall in energy prices. Ours is a direct result of government mismanagement.
Move over, Newfoundland, there's a new King of the Hobos in town. In three budgets, we've taken over the title of Confederation's poor cousin. Even more disgustingly, we've done this while spinning a bunch of PR BS about self-sufficiency. We're going the wrong way, both in absolute terms and relative to our neighbour provinces.
It's true that this recession is kicking everyone, but even in a situation like this, it makes a difference how you manage. Shame Graham is quick to note that $300 million of our deficit is due to hits in the pension fund. It sounds good, until you realize the deficit is $800 million. What Graham is really saying is: EVEN IF THE ECONOMY HAD STAYED STRONG, THE LIBERAL GOVERNMENT HAS MANAGED SO POORLY THAT WE'D BE A HALF A BILLION IN THE HOLE.
Quick question: if there was a forest fire approaching a village, which house do you think is most likely to come out intact: the one with a built-in sprinkler system, or the one which has already been set on fire by the owner before the main fire even arrives?
Last week, Newfoundland came out with their provincial budget and the deficits are back, they're predicting $750 million in red ink next year. That sounds pretty bad.
But wait a minute, isn't New Brunswick forecasting in the order of an $800 million deficit? What gives? How can we be doing even worse than Newfoundland? Has there been a drop of anything we export in the order of the precipitous fall in oil prices?
The answer is no, despite some laughable spin we'll get into another time. So what does this mean? There's an essential difference in our deficit and Newfoundland's: there's can be largely explained by market changes, ours cannot. Theirs is a direct result of a fall in energy prices. Ours is a direct result of government mismanagement.
Move over, Newfoundland, there's a new King of the Hobos in town. In three budgets, we've taken over the title of Confederation's poor cousin. Even more disgustingly, we've done this while spinning a bunch of PR BS about self-sufficiency. We're going the wrong way, both in absolute terms and relative to our neighbour provinces.
It's true that this recession is kicking everyone, but even in a situation like this, it makes a difference how you manage. Shame Graham is quick to note that $300 million of our deficit is due to hits in the pension fund. It sounds good, until you realize the deficit is $800 million. What Graham is really saying is: EVEN IF THE ECONOMY HAD STAYED STRONG, THE LIBERAL GOVERNMENT HAS MANAGED SO POORLY THAT WE'D BE A HALF A BILLION IN THE HOLE.
Quick question: if there was a forest fire approaching a village, which house do you think is most likely to come out intact: the one with a built-in sprinkler system, or the one which has already been set on fire by the owner before the main fire even arrives?
Saturday, March 28, 2009
Why Should I Care About the Deficit?
It's a simple formula: Today's deficit = tomorrow's tax increase.
You may think the money you borrow doesn't have to be repaid. Businessmen know better. In the world they inhabit, businesses with cash flow problems are businesses in trouble.
1. Tomorrow's tax increase = today's bad investment climate.
2. Today's bad investment climate = less investment today.
3. Less investment today = fewer jobs today, and tomorrow.
DEFICITS KILL JOBS, BECAUSE THEY KILL THE INVESTMENT THAT CREATES JOBS.
Oh, but you say, if tax rates are lowering, doesn't that encourage investment? Only stupid investment.
Let me give you a practical example. Suppose I offer you a stove that uses a special kind of fuel. Right now the fuel is cheaper than the alternative, but three years from now it will probably cost much more than the alternative. Would you pay money for a new furnace which burns my temporarily cheaper fuel? No you wouldn't. Would you invest in a province which temporarily has a lower tax rate, but which has deficits leading to a higher tax rate in the future? Answer: you would ONLY if you plan to get out before the tax rate goes back up.
In other words, you'll create some short term jobs, but if you're planning to create long term wealth from an ongoing investment, you'll seek a financially stable (low debt/low tax rate) jurisdiction.
Can you see now how the Liberal approach encourages short-term, handout-dependent industries?
Oh but you say, if there's growth, we won't need to raise tax rates, the growth will take care of that. That's true, and also unlikely to happen. The more investment you attract, the further you can spread the tax burden, and the lighter it is on everyone. Deficits push away investment, and the remaining industries know that. What do you think works harder, a horse in a team of 8 or a horse in a team of 4? Who do you think is more likely to be taxed higher in the future, a business starting in a low-debt jurisdiction or one starting in a high-debt jurisdiction.
Psychologically, we tend to heavily discount future events. We'll pay those bills later (or our grandchildren will), so why worry now? This ignores the reality of investment, which is: TODAY'S HIGH DEFICIT IS KILLING JOBS TODAY. Not when the debt comes due, not 10 years from now, but RIGHT NOW.
You may think the money you borrow doesn't have to be repaid. Businessmen know better. In the world they inhabit, businesses with cash flow problems are businesses in trouble.
1. Tomorrow's tax increase = today's bad investment climate.
2. Today's bad investment climate = less investment today.
3. Less investment today = fewer jobs today, and tomorrow.
DEFICITS KILL JOBS, BECAUSE THEY KILL THE INVESTMENT THAT CREATES JOBS.
Oh, but you say, if tax rates are lowering, doesn't that encourage investment? Only stupid investment.
Let me give you a practical example. Suppose I offer you a stove that uses a special kind of fuel. Right now the fuel is cheaper than the alternative, but three years from now it will probably cost much more than the alternative. Would you pay money for a new furnace which burns my temporarily cheaper fuel? No you wouldn't. Would you invest in a province which temporarily has a lower tax rate, but which has deficits leading to a higher tax rate in the future? Answer: you would ONLY if you plan to get out before the tax rate goes back up.
In other words, you'll create some short term jobs, but if you're planning to create long term wealth from an ongoing investment, you'll seek a financially stable (low debt/low tax rate) jurisdiction.
Can you see now how the Liberal approach encourages short-term, handout-dependent industries?
Oh but you say, if there's growth, we won't need to raise tax rates, the growth will take care of that. That's true, and also unlikely to happen. The more investment you attract, the further you can spread the tax burden, and the lighter it is on everyone. Deficits push away investment, and the remaining industries know that. What do you think works harder, a horse in a team of 8 or a horse in a team of 4? Who do you think is more likely to be taxed higher in the future, a business starting in a low-debt jurisdiction or one starting in a high-debt jurisdiction.
Psychologically, we tend to heavily discount future events. We'll pay those bills later (or our grandchildren will), so why worry now? This ignores the reality of investment, which is: TODAY'S HIGH DEFICIT IS KILLING JOBS TODAY. Not when the debt comes due, not 10 years from now, but RIGHT NOW.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Worst Government Ever - Part IV, Labour Relations
This part comes as an important addition to the original series, and it deals with labour relations. The Government of New Brunswick is the biggest employer in the Province, with about 45,000 people on the payroll, including nurses, teachers, NB Power, social workers, general civil servants, and so on. It goes without saying that a huge portion of the annual budget is paid out in salaries to people who provide services.
Obviously, managing “the wage bill” is very important for any competent government that wants to balance the books. But according to the Shawn Graham Government, it is more important to be liked than to be right.
Recently, the SGG announced that all government workers would be subject to a two year wage freeze. This came directly on the heels of the cowardly leaked announcement that they had mismanaged spending so badly that they were actually going to table a budget for next year with an $800 million deficit. This is roughly the equivalent of adding $1,000 to the Visa bill of every single person or baby living in New Brunswick. And we all know how easy it is to pay those bills off.
So when the government announces there will be a 2 year wage freeze, everyone of course thinks back to Frank McKenna and his famous “0% increase days” in the recession of the early 1990’s. We all remember Premier McKenna bravely announcing that that the economy had gone down the tubes, and that everyone, and I mean everyone, was getting no increases for a couple of years until the province got back on its feet. This was announced weeks after the then Liberal government had signed a contract with the Nurses Union, a very powerful lobby group in New Brunswick. Many protests were had, but in the end the voters did not punish the McKenna Liberals because people recognized it was a bad time but everyone was being treated the same. It wasn’t right of them to negotiate in such bad faith, but no one could successfully argue against the decision on that basis alone.
Fast forward 15 years and now we have the Shawn Graham Liberals in exactly the same position. Unfortunately, we are quickly learning that Shawn ain’t no Premier McKenna. Because just like in the early 1990’s we are facing a global economic recession, and everyone has to bite the bullet. And just like Premier McKenna, the current bunch of bananas just signed last month a big fat juicy contract with the powerful nurses union. And just like Premier McKenna, they have announced a 0% wage increase policy. But the BIG difference between the two is this: Frank imposed the wage freeze on everyone at the same time and during the economic crisis. Whereas Shawn “I like to be liked” Graham has decided to postpone the wage freeze for anyone who just signed a contract.
What does this mean? Well for 5,800 nurses it means that even though we are having an economic crisis today, right now, they are still going to get every penny of their new contract increases until it expires - - - in December of 2010. At that point (probably once the crisis has passed) then they are supposedly going to have a two year wage freeze.
But wait there’s more. The nurses weren’t the only ones to get in under the wire. The major health care workers union, representing 8,300 employees signed in late September (just as the economy was starting to unravel) and guess what - their members are going to get increases of 12% to 50% over a four year period ending in June of 2011. Then they will supposedly have a wage freeze.
But wait, there’s even more. The nurses and other health care workers aren’t the only ones who have signed a fat juicy contract with the SGG. In December Smiling Kelly Lamrock signed an even bigger and longer contract with 7,500 teachers, a contract that does not expire until February 2012 - at which point - you guessed it - they will supposedly have a two year wage freeze.
Just to recap, here’s the situation. Shawn Graham has announced a wage freeze on all government workers, with the small print that it doesn’t apply to those who have recently signed a contract. In fact, they have recently signed big fat juicy contracts with HALF OF THE GOVERNMENT - so those folks won’t get wage freezes for another two years, or three years, or four years. Does anyone really believe any of those people will have their wages frozen in 2012 - long after the recession is over?
The result is two classes of government workers - those with big fat juicy contracts and those who are frozen. But hey, it’s totally worth it if Shawn doesn’t have to stand on the steps of the legislature with a bullhorn, like Premier McKenna did, and explain his decisions to an angry mob. Right?
Obviously, managing “the wage bill” is very important for any competent government that wants to balance the books. But according to the Shawn Graham Government, it is more important to be liked than to be right.
Recently, the SGG announced that all government workers would be subject to a two year wage freeze. This came directly on the heels of the cowardly leaked announcement that they had mismanaged spending so badly that they were actually going to table a budget for next year with an $800 million deficit. This is roughly the equivalent of adding $1,000 to the Visa bill of every single person or baby living in New Brunswick. And we all know how easy it is to pay those bills off.
So when the government announces there will be a 2 year wage freeze, everyone of course thinks back to Frank McKenna and his famous “0% increase days” in the recession of the early 1990’s. We all remember Premier McKenna bravely announcing that that the economy had gone down the tubes, and that everyone, and I mean everyone, was getting no increases for a couple of years until the province got back on its feet. This was announced weeks after the then Liberal government had signed a contract with the Nurses Union, a very powerful lobby group in New Brunswick. Many protests were had, but in the end the voters did not punish the McKenna Liberals because people recognized it was a bad time but everyone was being treated the same. It wasn’t right of them to negotiate in such bad faith, but no one could successfully argue against the decision on that basis alone.
Fast forward 15 years and now we have the Shawn Graham Liberals in exactly the same position. Unfortunately, we are quickly learning that Shawn ain’t no Premier McKenna. Because just like in the early 1990’s we are facing a global economic recession, and everyone has to bite the bullet. And just like Premier McKenna, the current bunch of bananas just signed last month a big fat juicy contract with the powerful nurses union. And just like Premier McKenna, they have announced a 0% wage increase policy. But the BIG difference between the two is this: Frank imposed the wage freeze on everyone at the same time and during the economic crisis. Whereas Shawn “I like to be liked” Graham has decided to postpone the wage freeze for anyone who just signed a contract.
What does this mean? Well for 5,800 nurses it means that even though we are having an economic crisis today, right now, they are still going to get every penny of their new contract increases until it expires - - - in December of 2010. At that point (probably once the crisis has passed) then they are supposedly going to have a two year wage freeze.
But wait there’s more. The nurses weren’t the only ones to get in under the wire. The major health care workers union, representing 8,300 employees signed in late September (just as the economy was starting to unravel) and guess what - their members are going to get increases of 12% to 50% over a four year period ending in June of 2011. Then they will supposedly have a wage freeze.
But wait, there’s even more. The nurses and other health care workers aren’t the only ones who have signed a fat juicy contract with the SGG. In December Smiling Kelly Lamrock signed an even bigger and longer contract with 7,500 teachers, a contract that does not expire until February 2012 - at which point - you guessed it - they will supposedly have a two year wage freeze.
Just to recap, here’s the situation. Shawn Graham has announced a wage freeze on all government workers, with the small print that it doesn’t apply to those who have recently signed a contract. In fact, they have recently signed big fat juicy contracts with HALF OF THE GOVERNMENT - so those folks won’t get wage freezes for another two years, or three years, or four years. Does anyone really believe any of those people will have their wages frozen in 2012 - long after the recession is over?
The result is two classes of government workers - those with big fat juicy contracts and those who are frozen. But hey, it’s totally worth it if Shawn doesn’t have to stand on the steps of the legislature with a bullhorn, like Premier McKenna did, and explain his decisions to an angry mob. Right?
Monday, March 23, 2009
Letter from a New Brunswick Ex-Pat
On behalf of the thousands of New Brunswick ex-pats who would someday like to return home, I would like to thank Shawn Graham for making that a fantasy.
I left New Brunswick just as the Graham Government came to power and raised taxes back in 06/07. I am only viewing this government from afar.
Thankfully.
Looking at the latest budget it looks like he is actually just giving back some of what he took a few years ago and he had to go borrow money to do it. Awesome. You should all feel really good about that one.
As it stands right now, New Brunswick has a debt of approx $8 billion dollars. That will rise to $10 billion before the liberals finish this term. That means the debt is more than what the government takes in on an annual basis annual revenue is approx $8 billion).
Add to this that a very large chunk of what the province pulls in for revenue comes from Ottawa in the form of transfer payments, and that equals a province that will be teetering on the brink of bankruptcy around 2009. Great place to live. Your great grand kids will be paying interest on this decision.
I am not an economist but when you spend more than you make that normally spells trouble.
I seem to recall that the New Brunswick debt was going down, albeit slowly, throughout the late 90's and into 2006. Well goodbye to ten years of fiscal stability - IN A BIG WAY. In one budget Shawn is borrowing 10% of what the province spends on an annual basis. He has completely erased years of prudent financial management.
Thanks man.
The self sufficiency vision sure is taking a licking in this budget. How can anyone stand in front of a mirror and say New Brunswick is on a path to self sufficiency? This is a joke of the highest magnitude. A province that will have a debt that exceeds its annual budget cannot ever dream of self sufficiency.
It is now official – New Brunswick has now become the new Newfoundland. There are little to no job opportunities, small business is taxed to pieces, the province is almost crushed under the weight of a ballooning debt and there is no vision or leadership that would entice anyone to come home or for any young person to stay. Just check the stats of out migration from New Brunswick, they will only accelerate in the coming years thanks to this budget.
The only part of Shawn’s self sufficiency agenda that will become a reality is that thousands of young New Brunswickers will become self sufficient when they leave. The province has already established a great reputation for its great young people that go live somewhere else.
On the plus side - years from now there will be a fantastic retirement business to be had when we all come back from a successful life somewhere else.
I really love New Brunswick. It is my home and I would like nothing more than to move my family back. This will not happen with buffoons like Shawn Graham ruining a once great province.
Folks - do yourself a favour and chuck this bartender/substitute teacher who calls himself a premier out
I left New Brunswick just as the Graham Government came to power and raised taxes back in 06/07. I am only viewing this government from afar.
Thankfully.
Looking at the latest budget it looks like he is actually just giving back some of what he took a few years ago and he had to go borrow money to do it. Awesome. You should all feel really good about that one.
As it stands right now, New Brunswick has a debt of approx $8 billion dollars. That will rise to $10 billion before the liberals finish this term. That means the debt is more than what the government takes in on an annual basis annual revenue is approx $8 billion).
Add to this that a very large chunk of what the province pulls in for revenue comes from Ottawa in the form of transfer payments, and that equals a province that will be teetering on the brink of bankruptcy around 2009. Great place to live. Your great grand kids will be paying interest on this decision.
I am not an economist but when you spend more than you make that normally spells trouble.
I seem to recall that the New Brunswick debt was going down, albeit slowly, throughout the late 90's and into 2006. Well goodbye to ten years of fiscal stability - IN A BIG WAY. In one budget Shawn is borrowing 10% of what the province spends on an annual basis. He has completely erased years of prudent financial management.
Thanks man.
The self sufficiency vision sure is taking a licking in this budget. How can anyone stand in front of a mirror and say New Brunswick is on a path to self sufficiency? This is a joke of the highest magnitude. A province that will have a debt that exceeds its annual budget cannot ever dream of self sufficiency.
It is now official – New Brunswick has now become the new Newfoundland. There are little to no job opportunities, small business is taxed to pieces, the province is almost crushed under the weight of a ballooning debt and there is no vision or leadership that would entice anyone to come home or for any young person to stay. Just check the stats of out migration from New Brunswick, they will only accelerate in the coming years thanks to this budget.
The only part of Shawn’s self sufficiency agenda that will become a reality is that thousands of young New Brunswickers will become self sufficient when they leave. The province has already established a great reputation for its great young people that go live somewhere else.
On the plus side - years from now there will be a fantastic retirement business to be had when we all come back from a successful life somewhere else.
I really love New Brunswick. It is my home and I would like nothing more than to move my family back. This will not happen with buffoons like Shawn Graham ruining a once great province.
Folks - do yourself a favour and chuck this bartender/substitute teacher who calls himself a premier out
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Ducks Are People Too
Did anyone else notice that last week, the same day he announced he was freezing the wages of 45,000 workers in New Brunswick and that we have an $800 million deficit - Shawn Graham also created a brand new $1.5 million program for ducks. That's right, the very same day he announced the province is broke he also signed an agreement with Ducks Unlimited to give them $1.5 million - that apparently we don't even have in our bank account - so that they can make better homes for ducks.
What the hell?! I can understand where Shawn used to be the Chairman of Ducks Unlimited NB he feels like he wants to give them something - but does this guy have a single clue about making decisions? Has he looked up the word "timing" in the dictionary?
Not angry yet? Try this on for size - this week we found out that the new program the Liberal Government created to help people afford to heat their homes in the winter HAS RUN OUT OF MONEY. They had to turn away almost 4,000 people who had applied. But guess what - Shawn only put 0.5 million dollars into that program. Yes you can do the math - ducks get 3 times as much money for their homes as people do under the Shawn Graham Liberals. What a bunch of bananas!
What the hell?! I can understand where Shawn used to be the Chairman of Ducks Unlimited NB he feels like he wants to give them something - but does this guy have a single clue about making decisions? Has he looked up the word "timing" in the dictionary?
Not angry yet? Try this on for size - this week we found out that the new program the Liberal Government created to help people afford to heat their homes in the winter HAS RUN OUT OF MONEY. They had to turn away almost 4,000 people who had applied. But guess what - Shawn only put 0.5 million dollars into that program. Yes you can do the math - ducks get 3 times as much money for their homes as people do under the Shawn Graham Liberals. What a bunch of bananas!
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
St. Paddy’s Day Massacre - Brought to you by the Church of Self Sufficiency
The New Brunswick government delivered the budget today.
Massacre may be an understatement.
Here is the rundown:
Runaway Deficits
Hundreds of Civil Servants Fired
Higher Unemployment
Higher Debt
The 3/4 of a billion dollars in overspending is nothing more than Deferred Taxation. We are presently unsure to whom we are deferring it, but some possibilities include our kids, our grandkids, the rich, the poor, the middle class, our neighbours and friends. Pick who you think it will be.
This budget will go down in history as the worst budget this province has ever seen.
Massacre may be an understatement.
Here is the rundown:
Runaway Deficits
Hundreds of Civil Servants Fired
Higher Unemployment
Higher Debt
The 3/4 of a billion dollars in overspending is nothing more than Deferred Taxation. We are presently unsure to whom we are deferring it, but some possibilities include our kids, our grandkids, the rich, the poor, the middle class, our neighbours and friends. Pick who you think it will be.
This budget will go down in history as the worst budget this province has ever seen.
Sunday, March 8, 2009
Worst Government Ever? – Part Three
Taxation
This is the third in a three part series, examining whether the government of Shawn Graham can pull off an historic feat, becoming the worst government in New Brunswick history.
Finally, the biggest power of the provincial government is controlling our taxes. As already mentioned, the Graham Gang sent quite a clear signal to the national and international business community in their first budget when they raised business taxes by 500% - many of them just packed up and left. Now the Graham Liberals feel bad however, and they want to give some of that back, as the Premier has suggested that now they believe in lower taxes and as much as $100 million could be returned to us. That's great, except that the original tax hike was more than $135 million, and when you add in the new fee increases worth more than $15 million for driver licenses and marriage certificates, we still seem to be paying more than we were before.
This is a great example of the Shawn Graham "re-back-tracking" on an issue. Because before the election he never talked about raising taxes. Then right after the election they paid someone to do a study that said we could have a major million dollar deficit and that they had to raise taxes to fix the deficit. Only, when the final results came in there was no deficit but a major surplus of more than $200 million. But then they said they were going to keep the taxes high so they can pay for more government services (and pay people more salaries and bonuses). Recently Shawn Graham announced that NB is actually (for real) running a $300 million deficit and worse news ... it's going to be even bigger next year. But now that the deficit is real he also feels it is the right time to lower taxes, and spend an extra billion dollars on capital projects that only provide temporary jobs, which will make the deficit bigger and leave more money for our kids to pay off.
So to summarize: If you have a fake deficit you have to raise taxes. If you have a real surplus - you keep the extra tax money anyway. But if you have a real deficit then that's the time to cut taxes and increase spending. John Maynard Keynes must be rolling in his grave.
To give the government some credit – even a stopped clock is right twice a day - they did decrease the tax on gasoline by a few cents per litre after they got elected. The fact that research done by the Moncton Times & Transcript shows we still seem to be paying the same prices as people in Nova Scotia, despite our lower taxes, probably only means that the oil companies are now using our tax breaks to collect extra profits. But hey, oil companies are people too.
Worst government ever? - You be the judge.
This is the third in a three part series, examining whether the government of Shawn Graham can pull off an historic feat, becoming the worst government in New Brunswick history.
Finally, the biggest power of the provincial government is controlling our taxes. As already mentioned, the Graham Gang sent quite a clear signal to the national and international business community in their first budget when they raised business taxes by 500% - many of them just packed up and left. Now the Graham Liberals feel bad however, and they want to give some of that back, as the Premier has suggested that now they believe in lower taxes and as much as $100 million could be returned to us. That's great, except that the original tax hike was more than $135 million, and when you add in the new fee increases worth more than $15 million for driver licenses and marriage certificates, we still seem to be paying more than we were before.
This is a great example of the Shawn Graham "re-back-tracking" on an issue. Because before the election he never talked about raising taxes. Then right after the election they paid someone to do a study that said we could have a major million dollar deficit and that they had to raise taxes to fix the deficit. Only, when the final results came in there was no deficit but a major surplus of more than $200 million. But then they said they were going to keep the taxes high so they can pay for more government services (and pay people more salaries and bonuses). Recently Shawn Graham announced that NB is actually (for real) running a $300 million deficit and worse news ... it's going to be even bigger next year. But now that the deficit is real he also feels it is the right time to lower taxes, and spend an extra billion dollars on capital projects that only provide temporary jobs, which will make the deficit bigger and leave more money for our kids to pay off.
So to summarize: If you have a fake deficit you have to raise taxes. If you have a real surplus - you keep the extra tax money anyway. But if you have a real deficit then that's the time to cut taxes and increase spending. John Maynard Keynes must be rolling in his grave.
To give the government some credit – even a stopped clock is right twice a day - they did decrease the tax on gasoline by a few cents per litre after they got elected. The fact that research done by the Moncton Times & Transcript shows we still seem to be paying the same prices as people in Nova Scotia, despite our lower taxes, probably only means that the oil companies are now using our tax breaks to collect extra profits. But hey, oil companies are people too.
Worst government ever? - You be the judge.
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Worst Government Ever? – Part Two
The Economy
This is part two of three parts, outlining how the Graham government is in the running (the lead?) to become the worst government in New Brunswick history. A big feat, but definitely attainable if the current direction does not change.
How about supporting New Brunswick businesses and industries like forestry - maybe they are having more success in that department? Try this on for size: within six months of being elected they raised business taxes by 500% and chopped spending on silviculture. Probably it's not a coincidence that within six months after that first budget four major international forestry companies closed their operations in New Brunswick pretty much devastating small communities like Bathurst and Miramichi. And after years of operation our textile mills have recently closed up shop throwing hundreds more out of work.
However, not all is gloomy on the business front. Shortly after the election a prominent Liberal was given a grant to start up a houseboat business. And if you just happened to be the Liberal campaign manager, then your marketing and communications business has received lots of new government contracts. Suppose you're a former Liberal cabinet minister who's into lobbying: you probably spent two years raking in the cash and now you have a top government job in charge of "strategic priorities". Likewise if you own a failed golf course in Moncton with a board of directors stacked with card-carrying Liberals then don't worry, the government will bail you out. And, let's say you own a bar business in partnership with your son the Liberal MLA, and you take the government to court for charging you too much taxes and you win - that could be worth a cool million dollars too.
Of course, the economy is driven by energy and this may well be the saving grace for the Graham Liberals, as a number of private sector companies (who thankfully don't need this government's help) are poised to deliver on some mega-projects such as a new LNG plant and an oil refinery. On the other hand, the energy projects that the Premier and his ministers do have some say over, those being managed through NB Power, have not been as successful. So far the refurbishment at Point Lepreau nuclear is months late and only $100 million over budget. And as for "Lepreau II", well AECL doesn't even have the reactor design approved yet - so don't hold your breath on that one. Did we mention the one New Brunswick company that had a contract to work on the Lepreau refurbishment recently filed for bankruptcy? So much for local benefits.
Worst government ever? - You be the judge.
This is part two of three parts, outlining how the Graham government is in the running (the lead?) to become the worst government in New Brunswick history. A big feat, but definitely attainable if the current direction does not change.
How about supporting New Brunswick businesses and industries like forestry - maybe they are having more success in that department? Try this on for size: within six months of being elected they raised business taxes by 500% and chopped spending on silviculture. Probably it's not a coincidence that within six months after that first budget four major international forestry companies closed their operations in New Brunswick pretty much devastating small communities like Bathurst and Miramichi. And after years of operation our textile mills have recently closed up shop throwing hundreds more out of work.
However, not all is gloomy on the business front. Shortly after the election a prominent Liberal was given a grant to start up a houseboat business. And if you just happened to be the Liberal campaign manager, then your marketing and communications business has received lots of new government contracts. Suppose you're a former Liberal cabinet minister who's into lobbying: you probably spent two years raking in the cash and now you have a top government job in charge of "strategic priorities". Likewise if you own a failed golf course in Moncton with a board of directors stacked with card-carrying Liberals then don't worry, the government will bail you out. And, let's say you own a bar business in partnership with your son the Liberal MLA, and you take the government to court for charging you too much taxes and you win - that could be worth a cool million dollars too.
Of course, the economy is driven by energy and this may well be the saving grace for the Graham Liberals, as a number of private sector companies (who thankfully don't need this government's help) are poised to deliver on some mega-projects such as a new LNG plant and an oil refinery. On the other hand, the energy projects that the Premier and his ministers do have some say over, those being managed through NB Power, have not been as successful. So far the refurbishment at Point Lepreau nuclear is months late and only $100 million over budget. And as for "Lepreau II", well AECL doesn't even have the reactor design approved yet - so don't hold your breath on that one. Did we mention the one New Brunswick company that had a contract to work on the Lepreau refurbishment recently filed for bankruptcy? So much for local benefits.
Worst government ever? - You be the judge.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Worst Government Ever? Part One
Part One, Liberal Policy
Speculation and serious talk is starting to grow across the province of New Brunswick - are the Shawn Graham Liberals the worst government - ever?
Now the term "worst government ever" is relative, since it's not easy for anyone except a hard core historian to judge whether the current gang has made more mistakes and bungles than any other government in the past 200 years. But even looking at the last 50 years it's hard to imagine a new government getting off to a worse start and back-tracking on more commitments. And even "re-back-tracking" on some of them.
They're not responsible for a global economic meltdown (as far as we know) but just look at all the different sectors and departments the provincial government is responsible for overseeing and there is already a clear pattern of total incompetence.
The biggest department in our provincial government is health. It accounts for more than 40% of the provincial budget. And it's a mess. The Liberal decision to amalgamate all the health boards into two - one English and one bilingual, was the equivalent of waving a big red flag in front of an angry bull. Louis J. Robichaud created equal opportunity, Hatfield perfected it, McKenna entrenched it in the Canadian Constitution, and Lord re-wrote the Official Languages Act without a single murmur of protest. In two years the Graham Liberals have provoked a constitutional challenge that will split English and French communities in this province for the next decade. Over what? The number of hospital boards - smooth move.
The health reforms introduced by Mike Murphy and Shawn Graham have so far produced the following results (in addition to the language wars): a hospital was re-opened in Perth-Andover as a campaign promise and now doesn't have the staff to treat scrapes and scratches; a new crown corporation bureaucracy was created in Saint John in order to "create efficiencies" with no new efficiencies yet created; a consultation board was created in Moncton that so far has consulted nobody; and a hospital board was located in Miramichi where even the CEO they appointed refuses to work. And the new medical school in Saint John is already two years behind schedule. Guess what? The Graham Liberals have only been around for two years.
Education is the next biggest department that is run by the provincial government - how are things going there? Does anyone remember the French immersion fiasco of last summer when Minister Lamrock decided he knew a lot more than his own experts and decided to undo 40 years of programming because he wasn't satisfied with the results. The end of that disaster was that instead of starting French Immersion in Grade 1, now kids start in Grade 3 - wow what an improvement.
Bernard Lord started an ambitious program to give laptop computers to all students in grades 7 and 8 - a program modeled after a very successful program in Maine. It started with a pilot program in six schools and was going to spread across the province before the Liberals were elected. Last month Education Minister Lamrock announced an exciting partnership with Microsoft which is going to be piloted in just two schools - maybe they should call it the incredible shrinking pilot program. And is it just a coincidence that one of these pilot schools is in his Liberal riding and the other in the Liberal riding of the Minister of Post-secondary education?
Speaking of post-secondary education - the Premier was hell bent to reform how the province controls universities and colleges, and he proudly created a special commission to study the issue. And they did. Their recommendations had people around the province out in the streets in protest to the crazy convoluted new system they were proposing. Shortly after Premier Graham asked the university and college presidents to write their own report - which they gladly did. So far not a single recommendation has been implemented.
Social programming is another big responsibility of the provincial government - and this was an early commitment of the Graham Government to tackle the relationship with non-profit organizations. He even hired Claudette Bradshaw - a well known Liberal who travelled on the campaign bus as Shawn's French tutor, but also a person who is highly regarded across Canada as an expert in poverty and NPO issues. She was paid over $100,000 to produce a report that was so excellent that this year the Liberals have started a whole new consultation process. Again, no recommendations have been implemented.
No one will ever forget the fate of Paul Durelle from Kent County, who froze to death after being cut-off from NB Power electricity to heat his home. Before they got elected the Liberals said they were going to do a lot of things to make home heating more affordable and to force NB Power to not cut off their clients. Did Mr. Durelle ask the Premier for assistance - we apparently will never know because the Premier's Office does not seem to have any records of the calls that his family say he made there. Of course, 55,000 people did make use of the $100 in winter heating assistance the Liberals provided their first year in office - but that program must have been a victim of its own success because this year they cut it by 90% and asked the Salvation Army to do the work for them.
Worst government ever? - You be the judge.
Speculation and serious talk is starting to grow across the province of New Brunswick - are the Shawn Graham Liberals the worst government - ever?
Now the term "worst government ever" is relative, since it's not easy for anyone except a hard core historian to judge whether the current gang has made more mistakes and bungles than any other government in the past 200 years. But even looking at the last 50 years it's hard to imagine a new government getting off to a worse start and back-tracking on more commitments. And even "re-back-tracking" on some of them.
They're not responsible for a global economic meltdown (as far as we know) but just look at all the different sectors and departments the provincial government is responsible for overseeing and there is already a clear pattern of total incompetence.
The biggest department in our provincial government is health. It accounts for more than 40% of the provincial budget. And it's a mess. The Liberal decision to amalgamate all the health boards into two - one English and one bilingual, was the equivalent of waving a big red flag in front of an angry bull. Louis J. Robichaud created equal opportunity, Hatfield perfected it, McKenna entrenched it in the Canadian Constitution, and Lord re-wrote the Official Languages Act without a single murmur of protest. In two years the Graham Liberals have provoked a constitutional challenge that will split English and French communities in this province for the next decade. Over what? The number of hospital boards - smooth move.
The health reforms introduced by Mike Murphy and Shawn Graham have so far produced the following results (in addition to the language wars): a hospital was re-opened in Perth-Andover as a campaign promise and now doesn't have the staff to treat scrapes and scratches; a new crown corporation bureaucracy was created in Saint John in order to "create efficiencies" with no new efficiencies yet created; a consultation board was created in Moncton that so far has consulted nobody; and a hospital board was located in Miramichi where even the CEO they appointed refuses to work. And the new medical school in Saint John is already two years behind schedule. Guess what? The Graham Liberals have only been around for two years.
Education is the next biggest department that is run by the provincial government - how are things going there? Does anyone remember the French immersion fiasco of last summer when Minister Lamrock decided he knew a lot more than his own experts and decided to undo 40 years of programming because he wasn't satisfied with the results. The end of that disaster was that instead of starting French Immersion in Grade 1, now kids start in Grade 3 - wow what an improvement.
Bernard Lord started an ambitious program to give laptop computers to all students in grades 7 and 8 - a program modeled after a very successful program in Maine. It started with a pilot program in six schools and was going to spread across the province before the Liberals were elected. Last month Education Minister Lamrock announced an exciting partnership with Microsoft which is going to be piloted in just two schools - maybe they should call it the incredible shrinking pilot program. And is it just a coincidence that one of these pilot schools is in his Liberal riding and the other in the Liberal riding of the Minister of Post-secondary education?
Speaking of post-secondary education - the Premier was hell bent to reform how the province controls universities and colleges, and he proudly created a special commission to study the issue. And they did. Their recommendations had people around the province out in the streets in protest to the crazy convoluted new system they were proposing. Shortly after Premier Graham asked the university and college presidents to write their own report - which they gladly did. So far not a single recommendation has been implemented.
Social programming is another big responsibility of the provincial government - and this was an early commitment of the Graham Government to tackle the relationship with non-profit organizations. He even hired Claudette Bradshaw - a well known Liberal who travelled on the campaign bus as Shawn's French tutor, but also a person who is highly regarded across Canada as an expert in poverty and NPO issues. She was paid over $100,000 to produce a report that was so excellent that this year the Liberals have started a whole new consultation process. Again, no recommendations have been implemented.
No one will ever forget the fate of Paul Durelle from Kent County, who froze to death after being cut-off from NB Power electricity to heat his home. Before they got elected the Liberals said they were going to do a lot of things to make home heating more affordable and to force NB Power to not cut off their clients. Did Mr. Durelle ask the Premier for assistance - we apparently will never know because the Premier's Office does not seem to have any records of the calls that his family say he made there. Of course, 55,000 people did make use of the $100 in winter heating assistance the Liberals provided their first year in office - but that program must have been a victim of its own success because this year they cut it by 90% and asked the Salvation Army to do the work for them.
Worst government ever? - You be the judge.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Election Fever
There seems to be a growing mood in the capital that the Graham Liberals are considering an early election, to avoid going to the polls in the fall of 2010, when the economy could be feeling very recession-like. Some are predicting as early as this May.
Here are the reasons Graham should go to the people:
1. The feeling is Alward does not have his organization in place, and would be caught flat-footed. Probably correct, but could change quickly.
2. The Tories are effectively broke, the Liberals have cash.
3. Some members in the liberal caucus have evidently indicated they are not interested in re-election. Namely, Eugene McGinley, Roly McIntyre, Stuart Jamieson and TJ Burke. A series of by-election losses could cause the liberal advantage in the house to shrink.
4. The Liberals could very well win Madawaska-la-Vallee, providing some momentum.
5. The budget deficit is spiralling out of control. Once the electorate gets a feeling that there is something like a spending plan being designed but nothing like a repayment plan being considered, they will be furious.
Here are the reasons why Graham will not go early:
1. The public is election-weary, federal elections in 04 / 06 / 08 and provincially in 03 / 06. For the (wo)man on the street, this is seen as too many elections. Throw in the recent municipal elections, and people are downright sick of campaigns. At least those that vote.
2. The election is scheduled to happen in September 2010. Going early could look like opportunism, which it is. Almost worked for Harper, but does Graham want to be compared to Harper?
3. The Liberals raised taxes and the deficit (before the economy softened, I might add), and are too short of time to reverse those terrible decisions with typical Liberal here-is-some-of-your-money-back-aren’t-I-a-great-person crap.
4. The Auditor General has recently stated the obvious, we are going to run enormous deficits. Big numbers scare people, and half to three quarters of a billion dollars (the possible deficit in the next fiscal year) is a big number.
5. Power is better than no power, and he can hang on for another year at least and hope things get better.
Summary:
If Graham rolls the dice and Alward runs on the mantra of Tories lowered your taxes and reduced the debt, Graham could be in trouble. But Alward needs to move quickly and decisively.
And Mr. Premier, Happy Birthday
Here are the reasons Graham should go to the people:
1. The feeling is Alward does not have his organization in place, and would be caught flat-footed. Probably correct, but could change quickly.
2. The Tories are effectively broke, the Liberals have cash.
3. Some members in the liberal caucus have evidently indicated they are not interested in re-election. Namely, Eugene McGinley, Roly McIntyre, Stuart Jamieson and TJ Burke. A series of by-election losses could cause the liberal advantage in the house to shrink.
4. The Liberals could very well win Madawaska-la-Vallee, providing some momentum.
5. The budget deficit is spiralling out of control. Once the electorate gets a feeling that there is something like a spending plan being designed but nothing like a repayment plan being considered, they will be furious.
Here are the reasons why Graham will not go early:
1. The public is election-weary, federal elections in 04 / 06 / 08 and provincially in 03 / 06. For the (wo)man on the street, this is seen as too many elections. Throw in the recent municipal elections, and people are downright sick of campaigns. At least those that vote.
2. The election is scheduled to happen in September 2010. Going early could look like opportunism, which it is. Almost worked for Harper, but does Graham want to be compared to Harper?
3. The Liberals raised taxes and the deficit (before the economy softened, I might add), and are too short of time to reverse those terrible decisions with typical Liberal here-is-some-of-your-money-back-aren’t-I-a-great-person crap.
4. The Auditor General has recently stated the obvious, we are going to run enormous deficits. Big numbers scare people, and half to three quarters of a billion dollars (the possible deficit in the next fiscal year) is a big number.
5. Power is better than no power, and he can hang on for another year at least and hope things get better.
Summary:
If Graham rolls the dice and Alward runs on the mantra of Tories lowered your taxes and reduced the debt, Graham could be in trouble. But Alward needs to move quickly and decisively.
And Mr. Premier, Happy Birthday
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)