Election Fever

There seems to be a growing mood in the capital that the Graham Liberals are considering an early election, to avoid going to the polls in the fall of 2010, when the economy could be feeling very recession-like. Some are predicting as early as this May.


Here are the reasons Graham should go to the people:

1. The feeling is Alward does not have his organization in place, and would be caught flat-footed. Probably correct, but could change quickly.
2. The Tories are effectively broke, the Liberals have cash.
3. Some members in the liberal caucus have evidently indicated they are not interested in re-election. Namely, Eugene McGinley, Roly McIntyre, Stuart Jamieson and TJ Burke. A series of by-election losses could cause the liberal advantage in the house to shrink.
4. The Liberals could very well win Madawaska-la-Vallee, providing some momentum.
5. The budget deficit is spiralling out of control. Once the electorate gets a feeling that there is something like a spending plan being designed but nothing like a repayment plan being considered, they will be furious.


Here are the reasons why Graham will not go early:

1. The public is election-weary, federal elections in 04 / 06 / 08 and provincially in 03 / 06. For the (wo)man on the street, this is seen as too many elections. Throw in the recent municipal elections, and people are downright sick of campaigns. At least those that vote.
2. The election is scheduled to happen in September 2010. Going early could look like opportunism, which it is. Almost worked for Harper, but does Graham want to be compared to Harper?
3. The Liberals raised taxes and the deficit (before the economy softened, I might add), and are too short of time to reverse those terrible decisions with typical Liberal here-is-some-of-your-money-back-aren’t-I-a-great-person crap.
4. The Auditor General has recently stated the obvious, we are going to run enormous deficits. Big numbers scare people, and half to three quarters of a billion dollars (the possible deficit in the next fiscal year) is a big number.
5. Power is better than no power, and he can hang on for another year at least and hope things get better.


Summary:

If Graham rolls the dice and Alward runs on the mantra of Tories lowered your taxes and reduced the debt, Graham could be in trouble. But Alward needs to move quickly and decisively.

And Mr. Premier, Happy Birthday